Super Bowl 53 Props: Cashing in on Over/Under 5.5 Canine Commercials

Who doesn’t like canines (dogs, to the layperson)? Well, I didn’t when I was a youngster because a big mean one chased me down the street once, but I’ve since grown out of that fear.

Man’s best friend is an advertiser’s best friend, too. If people like dogs, then they will of course buy a beer, cleaning product or automobile that features a dog in its commercial. It’s marketing 101, folks.

With that said, one of the early Super Bowl 53 prop bets that caught my eye was, “How many commercials will have a dog in it?” The over/under is set at 5.5.

Some of the best Super Bowl commercials in history have had dogs in them.

Aww, puppy!

Oh, no! Reminds me of that classic kid’s book, “The Puppy Who Lost Its Way.” Thank god those Clydesdales showed up to save the puppy from that wolf.

WeGo, the namesake of one of my cats. The cat version of WeGo does not fetch, however. In fact, she doesn’t do anything I tell her … because she’s a cat.

I went ahead and watched every Super Bowl commercial from the past three years to find where the value lies, as would any normal person would do …

And if I don’t get this one right I will be furious because watching four hours of commercials — the worst part of TV — is a hellish experience I wouldn’t wish upon a mid-level enemy of mine.

2018 Super Bowl commercials

Last year was a down year for dogs. The commercial for “The Voice” was the only one of the four to even have dogs for more than a split second, albeit ironically. But that’s the thing about dogs in commercials. You can just kind of toss them in the background in most scenarios and nobody bats an eye.

2017 Super Bowl commercials

Oohh baby, seven dog commercials. That’s what I am talking about!

I’m not sure if the oddsmakers will count ghost dogs or not, but I suspect that won’t be an issue this year.

Other than that Bud Light spot and the final Amazon Echo commercial, these are once again not centered around dogs. Just toss a pooch in here or there to spruce up your commercial.

2016 Super Bowl commercials

Ten! Ten dog commercials! Possibly just 9.33 dog commercials though, depending on what that disturbing, vile beast Puppy-Monkey-Baby counts as.

I will not try and find them all from before Super Bowl 50, so the bark stops here. There have been 21 dog commercials over the past three years which averages out to seven per year.

Last year was probably the worst year in a long time, so should we expect that to continue?

2019 Super Bowl commercials 

You may or may not be aware that some of these commercials come out early. Some are released in their entirety, while others have trailers.

That’s right, trailers for commercials that are 60 seconds or less. Seems unnecessary, but they’re going to help us make bank.

I’ve perused what’s available so far on ipot.tv and have found at least three commercials that will include dogs:

Halfway to the promise land. And, please note that there’s at least 50 more commercials that have not shown teasers.

Here are some other possible companies that could help us out:

Disney: It has bought some ad time, but exactly what it is advertising is unknown. What if it shows Goofy? What the hell does he count as?

Toyota: Toyota will have a commercial featuring the RAV4 —  a family-friendly vehicle that could fit a dog in the trunk.

Persil, ProClean or any other cleaning agent: Dogs get things dirty! It’s science. Only the best cleaning products can help you get dirt out of those nice white rugs.

Okay, that’s enough commercials for me. It’s going to take a while to convince my YouTube recommended section that I’m not obsessed with commercials.

Super Bowl commercials summary

I believe last year was a fluke. We already know a few major players have their pooches at the ready. One other element I have not mentioned yet is that Feb, 3 is the final day of the Chinese Year of the Dog.

The next day becomes Year of the Pig. How are you going to fade dogs on their last big day until 2030? You’d have to be an idiot …

The pick: Over 5.5 commercials 

This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by Mark Gallant. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.

 

Super Bowl 53 Simulations: Are the Los Angeles Rams Undervalued?

The New England Patriots are 2.5-point favorites over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl 53 and more than 80% of spread tickets and dollars are backing Tom Brady and Co.

Bookmakers and the public favor the Pats, but not The Action Network’s model which uses player and team statistics to simulate the Super Bowl 10,000 times.

According to the math, the Rams, and not the Patriots, should be favored.

On average, our simulations have LA winning by 1.1 points.

The numbers suggest there is more than a field goal’s worth of value on the Rams. But can we trust the simulations?

In the 2018-19 NFL season, a bettor following The Action Network’s simulations would have gone 136-121-9 (52.9%) against the spread (ATS) wagering on all games.

When the math recommended wagering on the underdog, bettors would have gone 97-79-6 (55.1%) ATS. When our line differed from the actual line by three or more points in the underdog’s favor, the record improved: 31-23 (57.4%) ATS.

These results include the playoffs, where the model is 7-3 ATS.

With the public on the Pats, bookmakers predict the Super Bowl 53 spread will move to New England -3. When the line moves to the key number of 3, I will be betting the Rams.

This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.

 

Patriots On Pace to Become Most Popular Super Bowl Bet Ever Tracked

Through the first four days of Super Bowl 53 betting, the New England Patriots have been a wildly popular spread wager among both professional and casual bettors.

According to The Action Network’s public betting data, 82% of bets, accounting for 85% of actual dollars wagered, on the spread have taken the Pats.

The one-sided betting action has forced oddsmakers to move the line from a pick’em to New England -2.5.

With the Patriots garnering such a large percentage of the overall Super Bowl 53 betting handle, we turned to our Bet Labs database to compare betting trends for Rams-Patriots to every Super Bowl available in our archive.

Here’s a look at closing lines, betting percentages and against-the-spread (ATS) results from Super Bowls 38-52:

Overall, Super Bowl betting has been very balanced since 2004, especially from Super Bowls 38-47.

Super Bowl 48 between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks was the first to close with one team receiving more than 60% of spread bets over our sample, starting a run of four straight years in which bettors backed one side at more than a 60% clip.

Super Bowl 48 was also the most lopsided championship game we’ve ever tracked, as Denver closed with 68% of all spread tickets.

Should bettors continue backing New England at such a furious pace, the Patriots will easily close as the most popular Super Bowl bet we’ve ever tracked.

For those wondering, NFL teams that receive at least 80% of spread bets have not performed well historically, going 94-114-9 (45.2%) ATS since 2003, per Bet Labs.

There are still more than 10 days until Super Bowl 53 kicks off, leaving plenty of time for Rams bettors to get in on the action, especially if the current one-sided betting forces oddsmakers to move this line to the key number of 3.

Be sure to download The Action Network’s mobile app to track real-time betting data for Super Bowl 53, including live Patriots-Rams odds and betting percentage updates.

This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by PJ Walsh. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.

 

Weather Forecast Moves Patriots-Chiefs AFC Championship Odds … Again

From mainstream sports media outlets to right here at The Action Network, the weather for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game between the New England Patriots and Kansas City Chiefs has received plenty of coverage.

As recently as Tuesday, the forecast at Arrowhead Stadium was calling for temperatures around 5 degrees at kickoff, inspiring bettors to jump on the under.

In fact, oddsmakers even moved the over/under Monday afternoon based solely on the weather forecast alone.

Just 24 hours later, however, an improving forecast has the Patriots-Chiefs over/under on the move once again, but this time it’s tracking back toward the opener of 58.5.

At the time of writing, current forecasts are reporting temperatures around 22 degrees at kickoff that ultimately drop to the high teens as the game progresses.

While still extremely cold, temperatures in this range are hardly historic. According to our Bet Labs data, 98 NFL games have been played in average temperatures between 15 and 25 degrees since 2003.

Just five contests averaged temps of 5 degrees or below.

With the weather “warming,” the Patriots-Chiefs over/under has ticked back up to 55 across the market. While this half-point move doesn’t appear too drastic at first, 55 is an important number in NFL over/under betting.

It’s only Wednesday, and as we’ve seen already this week, weather forecasts can fluctuate drastically over the course of just a few hours.

Be sure to download The Action Network’s mobile app to track real-time line moves for both of Sunday’s NFL conference championship matchups.

This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by PJ Walsh. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.

 

Bill Simmons’ NFL Betting Theory: Do Dome Teams Struggle Outdoors in the Playoffs?

Rule No. 6 in Bill Simmons’ Playoff Gambling Manifesto: Beware of all dome teams playing outdoors, especially in cold weather. Simmons’ theory is that dome teams are soft and not capable of adjusting to the cold temperatures of postseason football.

Does the data backup the hypothesis?

Using the Bet Labs database, teams that play in a dome or a stadium with a retractable roof have gone 8-24 (25.0%) straight up (SU) in postseason games played outside since 2003.

In comparison, non-dome teams in outdoor road playoff games have gone 50-56 (47.2%) SU over the same span.

That is a significant difference in win percentage and one that holds up if we expand our sample.

Since 1990, using data from Pro-Football-Reference, there have been 56 dome teams that played in outdoor playoff games. These teams are 12-44 (21.4%) SU and 18-36-2 (33.3%) against the spread (ATS) in these matchups.

Temperature does not seem to further impact the performance of dome teams as Simmons theorized. In games played in freezing temperatures, 32 degrees or colder, dome teams are 4-18 (18.2%) SU and 8-13-1 (38.1%) ATS, which is in line with the overall averages.

Colder weather doesn’t fully explain the poor performance of dome teams in outdoor playoff games, but there is something to it. Playing on the road and likely facing a superior team, the team with home field usually has a better record, contributing to the struggles of dome teams outside.

In the Divisional Round, a pair of dome teams will go on the road this weekend. The Indianapolis Colts are 5-point underdogs in Kansas City against the Chiefs (Jan. 12, 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC).

Following Colts-Chiefs on Saturday, the Dallas Cowboys, as 7.5-point underdogs, head to Los Angeles for a showdown with the Rams (Jan. 12, 8:15 p.m. ET, FOX).

Bettors either aren’t aware of or don’t care about the historical struggles of dome teams in outdoor playoff games. A majority of spread tickets are on both the Colts and Cowboys.

Will these dome teams break the hearts of bettors or can the Colts and Cowboys buck the trend and cover? We will find out on Saturday.

This article was originally posted on ActionNetwork.com by John Ewing. Sports Insights is part of The Action Network.