Early Week 10 Line Moves in the NFL

A quick look at where the lines have moved since the Sunday night release by the off-shore books.

Washington at Minnesota: The Redskins opened up as two point road favorites against the Vikings in the Thursday night matchup. That line has crept up slightly to 2.5, with a few places listing as 3 with inflated juice. The total has also moved a little higher, going from 48 to 49.5.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: The line opened up Tennessee -13 and hasn’t moved. The total, 41, also has remained steady.

Oakland at NY Giants: The Giants opened up as 6.5 -114 favorites at Bookmaker, seven elsewhere. The early money has come in on the Giants, moving the line in some places to 7.5. Teaser protection strategies are in play; many books are offering New York -9 +110 to keep teaser players off the game.

St. Louis at Indianapolis
: The Colts opened -11.5 at Bookmaker, 10 at the Greek, and 11 at Pinnacle. The money has come in on the Rams, with the line dropping to 9.5 in most places. The total has moved from 43 to 44.

Seattle at Atlanta: Seattle opened -6.5, but early action has seen that line drop to -6. The over/under is now 44.5 after opening 45.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore
: This game opened up with the Bengals favored by 1 or 2 points at most places. that number has locked in at 1.5. The total has seen a nice move, opening at 41.5 at Pinnacle and climbing to 44.5 in most places.

Carolina at San Francisco
: The 49ers opened up as 6.5 favorites. That line hasn’t moved much, although gamblers with some shopping abilities should be able to find 49ers -6 out there. The total opened 41.5 and is now 42.5

Houston at Arizona: Arizona opened up as three point favorites at Bookmaker. Early money has come in on the road underdog, however, and that line has crept downward. -2.5 are available to shoppers, as is plus three on Houston. Both prices require added juice. The total opened 40 and is now 41.

Denver at San Diego: The Broncos opened as 7 point favorites; that line has remained steady although San Diego backers will need to pay some additional juice to get the seven points. The total, opening at 56.5/57 in most places, hasn’t moved.

Dallas at New Orleans: The Saints are seven point favorites after opening 6.5 at Bookmaker. The total has crept upward, moving from 52.5 to 53.5 for the Sunday Night game.

Miami at Tampa Bay
: Miami is now a 2.5 road favorite, down from a 3.5 opening at Bookmaker. The total opened 41 and has remained at that number, with additional juice.

Pistons To Get a Real Test Against Pacers

Indiana Pacers -1.5 at Detroit Pistons +1.5 Total: 186

The Indiana Pacers walloped Detroit last year, winning all four matchups by an average of 20 points. The rebuilt Pistons will see how all the off-season moves panned out with tonight’s home game against Indiana.

Detroit is 2-1 on the season, averaging 102.7 points per game while giving up 96.7. They have covered in all three games, with their over/under record 2-1-0. When their opponents have the ball, the Pistons are allowing 46% shooting from the field, including 32% from the three point line. Its defensive rebounding rate off those misses is 76%, and the team is averaging 11 steals and 3.3 blocks per game so far this season. On offense, the Pistons are shooting 47% from the field, including 31% from deep. Their free throw percentage so far this season is 70%, and they have gotten rebounds off their own misses 33% of the time. Detroit has turned the ball over 20 times per game this year, and have seen their shots blocked an average of 5.7 times per game.

The Pistons have added a lot of size to combat the Pacers big men. “They’re huge. They are one of the few teams that can match our size and maybe exceed our size when they play Josh Smith at the ‘3’. [Andre] Drummond is a beast. Greg Monroe is a beast. It’s going to be a physical battle for sure, ” said Pacers coach Frank Vogel.

The Pacers are scoring 93.7 points per game so far this season, en route to a 3-0 record overall and a 2-1-0 record against the spread. Indiana has given up 83.7 PPG, and have gone under in all three of their games so far this year. On defense, the Pacers have held their opponents to a 38% field goal percentage, 38% from three point land. They are creating 16.7 turnovers per game , and blocking 4 shots per game. The Pacers are shooting 44% from the field so far this season, with a 40% success rate from beyond the three point line. Their overall rebound percentage is 53%; its offense rebound rate is 23% with the defense collecting 76% of their opponent’s misses. The Pacers are shooting 76% at the free throw line this year. The Pacers have won five straight over the Pistons, but are slightly banged up. Danny Granger has a calf injury and George Hill might miss a second straight game with a sore hip. Indiana limited Cleveland to 34.9 percent from the floor and outrebounded the Cavaliers 51-37 while cruising to an 89-74 victory Saturday.

“I’m happy with the defense,” Vogel said. “These guys, when the game’s on the line, they tighten the screws…I thought our defensive rebounding against Cleveland was exceptional and we’re going to need that kind of effort against the Pistons, who are a great rebounding team. I also like what we’re doing in terms of our fouling discipline. It’s only three games but we’re leading the league in fewest fouls per game and a lot of it has to do with our body position and being smart with our discipline – staying down on shot fakes and making a conscious decision to keep teams off the line.”

The Heat Head to Toronto Favored by 4.5

Miami Heat -4.5 at Toronto Raptors +4.5 Total: 196

The Miami Heat got back on the winning track with a comfortable victory over winless Washington on Sunday. They will now look to get above .500 as small road favorites at Toronto on Tuesday. The Big Three played well against Washington: LeBron James had 25 points, Chris Bosh had 24 and Dwyane Wade scored 20. Miami finished with 32 assists on 37 field goals. “We understand that it’s easy for everyone when we move the ball, share the ball and we play like that,” James said.

Toronto is 2-1 on the season, averaging 95 points per game while giving up 93. They are 1-2-0 against the spread, with their over/under record 1-2-0. When their opponents have the ball, the Raptors are allowing 46% shooting from the field, including 36% from the three point line. Its defensive rebounding rate off those misses is 84%, and the team is averaging 8 steals and 5 blocks per game so far this season.
On offense, the Raptors are shooting 43% from the field, including 30% from deep. Their free throw percentage so far this season is 64%, and they have gotten rebounds off their own misses 35% of the time. Toronto has turned the ball over 15.7 times per game this year, and have seen their shots blocked an average of 4 times per game. The Raptors are coming off a 97-90 win over Milwaukee on Saturday. They had five players score in double figures and outrebounded the Bucks 60-38. “Everybody made a concerted effort to try to get the ball from side-to-side and get everybody involved early,” said guard Kyle Lowry, who finished with 14 points.

The Heat are scoring 105 points per game so far this season, en route to a 2-2 record overall and a 1-3-0 record against the spread. Miami has given up 100.7 PPG, and have an O/U record of 3-1-0 on the year. On defense, the Heat have held their opponents to a 47% field goal percentage, 38% from three point land. They are creating 19.3 turnovers per game , and blocking 3 shots per game. Their assist to turnover ratio is 1.56. The Heat are shooting 50% from the field so far this season, with a 45% success rate from beyond the three point line. Their overall rebound percentage is 45%; its offense rebound rate is 17% with the defense collecting 72% of their opponent’s misses. The Heat are shooting 75% at the free throw line this year. The Heat have won 11 straight in the series since a 111-103 loss at Toronto on Jan. 27, 2010, when Bosh was on the Raptors. Miami has outscored Toronto by an average of 13.3 points in the 10 meetings with James and Bosh on the Heat.

Surprising 76ers Underdogs at Home Against Golden State

Golden State Warriors -7 at Philadelphia 76ers +7 Total: 211.5

Two weeks ago, before the start of the 2013-14 season, the 76ers were thought to be the worst team in the NBA. Las Vegas predicted 16 wins out of the team. Fans were already debating who to draft #1 in next year’s draft, and started up a #winlessforwiggins hashtag on Twitter. But no more. The 76ers have started out 3-0 on the year, leading the Altantic Division by one game over the Toronto Raptors. And it isn’t just a schedule induced hot start; two of the wins have come against the Chicago Bulls and Miami Heat.

“We are just taking it day-by-day, game-by-game,” power forward Thaddeus Young said. “We are excited about the victories, but the work doesn’t stop here. We are a young team. We know that we have a lot to learn. And we know that we are to give it our all each and every night.”

Philadelphia is averaging 110 points per game while giving up 105.3. They are 3-0-0 against the spread, with their over/under record 3-0-0. When their opponents have the ball, the 76ers are allowing 46% shooting from the field, including 35% from the three point line. Its defensive rebounding rate off those misses is 72%, and the team is averaging 9.7 steals and 3.7 blocks per game so far this season. On offense, the 76ers are shooting 51% from the field, including 38% from deep. Their free throw percentage so far this season is 70%, and they have gotten rebounds off their own misses 23% of the time. Philadelphia has turned the ball over 17.3 times per game this year, and have seen their shots blocked an average of 4.3 times per game.

The Warriors are scoring 112.7 points per game so far this season, en route to a 2-1 record overall and a 1-1-1 record against the spread. Golden State has given up 102.3 PPG, and have an O/U record of 2-1-0 on the year. On defense, the Warriors have held their opponents to a 41% field goal percentage, 32% from three point land. They are creating 17 turnovers per game , and blocking 3 shots per game. Their assist to turnover ratio is 1.52. The Warriors are shooting 53% from the field so far this season, with a 51% success rate from beyond the three point line. Their overall rebound percentage is 49%; its offense rebound rate is 20% with the defense collecting 72% of their opponent’s misses. The Warriors are shooting 74% at the free throw line this year.

Buffalo Bills Coach Doug Marrone: “We’re a good football team that is not making the plays that we have to make”

On the heels of a brutal loss to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs team that was outgained 470 yards to 210, Bills Head Coach Doug Marrone spoke at his post-game press conference:

Marrone: “Obviously it hurts. It hurts me, it hurts the guys in that room, I hurt for them, I hurt for our fans. It’s tough. It’s a tough one. I thought that there were a lot of good things that happened on that field today. Defensively, they did a heck of a job. We knew coming in that this team scored a lot of points off turnovers. They had 17 off of turnovers. Even offensively there was some good things that happened and at the end of the day, it’s so close from being a good football team in this league. You saw it, they’re an 8-0 football team, 9-0 now and we’re 3-6. When it’s time to make the plays you have to make the plays and we didn’t do that. It hurts because we’ve got great fans, great people, guys play hard. They work their asses off during the week. Excuse me; they work their butts off during the week. We work hard as coaches and you get on that field and this one hurts.

This one hurts. I’m not going to stand here and say we should’ve won the game because obviously we didn’t, but it hurt and I think the swing, everyone knows the point in the game was that drive coming out of half. We went right down the field, C.J. did a nice job, made a great run and we get down there and we don’t punch it in on goal line. We get a penalty on the pass play first and then we don’t punch it in with a goal line formation. We go to the next formation; in the field it was a play that was working for us well during the game. It’s part of it if there is an all out pressure we do pull it and have the ability to throw it. They were in all out, in cover zero and the guy comes off of Stevie Johnson, just comes off of him and doesn’t cover him. Was standing right there when we’re throwing the ball in the slot. Even they knew exactly what we were doing or it was just unbelievable. I haven’t seen a lot of that; I’ve seen it a couple times down the field. We wound up throwing a pick and not only did we throw a pick, we threw a pick six, so the guy takes it all the way back. Then we have a fumble. We hit T.J. Graham and he drops the ball and they take it and they wind up scoring. Not even giving the defense a chance to get out there and play.”

Q: Is it hard for you to fathom that you can outgain them, win time of possession, etc. and end up losing by 10?

A: Yeah. Turnovers. It always comes down to that first.

Q: You seem particularly frustrated?

A: I’m definitely frustrated. I am. Guys work hard all week, they bust their butt and the fans come and then they do a great job and we have a chance to really get a good score and a good lead in this game and we do a great job to get down there. We earn ourselves a drive to get down there and we can’t finish it.

Q: Is there a part of you that is saying I would love to take a shot at them with my starting quarterback?

A: Here’s how I feel. I’d love to see our team with everybody healthy going out there and playing. Maybe that is unrealistic, but I would love to see our football team together, practicing together, playing together and maybe that’s an unrealistic approach in this league, but I would really love to see the football together and how good we can be.

Q: Did Jeff Tuel meet your expectations?

A: Yes. I don’t know, I have high expectations. If I put a guy out there, it’s my responsibility to put a guy out there that can win. Did Jeff play well enough for us to win? At times. At times he didn’t. I think you could say that about a lot of people.

Q: Was Thad (Lewis) close at all?

A: No.

Q: Can you evaluate Jeff Tuel’s performance today?

A: Yeah, I thought he had a couple drops; some guys dropped some balls on him. Obviously he wasn’t rattled when he went out there. He threw the poor pass that was the interception. He went out there and did the best he could, so we appreciate that.

Navy Coach Ken Niumatalolo: “Just one more play. That’s all it would have taken, just one more play”

An 11-play, 76-yard drive with less than four minutes to play gave Notre Dame the late lead over Navy, but it was a 4th and four stop by the Irish with just over a minute to go that clinched the victory. Navy running back Shawn Lynch initially looked like he had room after taking a pitch from quarterback Keenan Reynolds. Linebacker Jaylon Smith, however, closed the hole quickly and stuffed Lynch for no gain. Notre Dame’s stop gave the Irish a hard-fought 38-34 win over Navy.

Ken Niumatalolo had this to say about the game in his post-game interview: “It was hard fought game. I am super proud of our players. Everybody in this room can rest assured that those are the type of young men that are going to be protecting us, tough, hard?nosed kids. Yes, we would have liked to have won the game, but I couldn’t be more proud of a group of young men that just continued to battle at the end.”

Niumatalolo was very happy with the play of his quarterback: “I thought Keenan played well. I thought we had the perfect scenario. We got the ball to the 50 yard line, all our time?outs left. I didn’t want to give them the ball back. If we were going to score, I wanted to score with basically nothing on the clock, and we had a chance. Like I said, we had a chance. Got to go back and look at the tape, but I think we’re one guy away from breaking it, but we didn’t get it done. I thought Keenan played great in a hostile, tough environment to play. This is a great, great atmosphere to play at. I thought the kids prepared well for the game. Just one more play. That’s all it would have taken, just one more play.”

Navy, 4-4 on the season, will play Hawaii at home next week. Niumatalolo doesn’t want to see a letdown from his team. “What we can’t do is let this loss turn into two losses. We can’t let Notre Dame beat us twice. They’re a good team, but hopefully they won’t beat us twice. Hopefully, we’ll bounce back next week.”