College Basketball Betting: Florida heads to Missouri as Six-Point Favorites

Missouri, clawing for their post-season lives thanks to its struggles on the road, welcome the Florida Gators to Columbia on Tuesday night. The Tigers are six point underdogs to the Gators, with the total set at 139.

Missouri averages 84 points per game at home in six SEC games, compared to 64 on the road — a 20-point difference. The Tigers know what they are in for on Tuesday night.

“We’re playing one of the best teams in the country, if not the best team in the country,” coach Frank Haith said Monday. “They’re a very gifted, talented group on both ends of the court. Very good, very sound, experienced.”

Florida has won seven of its 10 road games this season, but the Gators have yet to defeat an NCAA Tournament-quality team on the road. The Gators have beaten their past three conference opponents by an average of 24 points since its  lone loss at Arkansas.

“I thought Auburn had a real good environment,” coach Billy Donovan said. “Our guys have played in difficult situations. I don’t think that there’s anything that we’re going to talk about environment-wise that’s going to take our guys totally back or off-guard.”

Florida Notes:
Florida, ranked #1 in the Pomeroy ratings, is 21-3 overall and 11-1 in the Southeastern Conference. Scoring 1.2 points each possession, Florida ranks first in the conference in Offensive Efficiency. They rank third in turnover percentage, sixth in offensive rebounding, first in three pointers, ninth in free throw percentage, and tenth in pace. Florida’s opponent’s average 0.8 points per possession in the Southeastern Conference, lowest in the conference. They hold opponents to a 42.2% effective field goal rate, first in the Southeastern Conference. They rank fourth in turnover percentage, second in offensive rebounding, in two point field goal percentage, second in three pointers, and eighth in free throw percentage.

Missouri Notes:
Missouri is 7-5 in the Southeastern Conference and 18-7 overall in the 2012-13 season. According to Ken Pomeroy, the Tigers have the #17 rated offense and #66 rated defense in college basketball, adjusted for schedule strength. Missouri is second in the Southeastern Conference in Offensive Efficiency, averaging 1.1 points per possession on offense. They are third in effective field goal percentage in the conference. They rank sixth in turnover percentage, third in offensive rebounding, third in two point field goal percentage, fifth in three pointers, first in free throw percentage, and third in pace. Missouri has the sixth ranked team in the Southeastern in defensive efficiency, allowing 1 points per possession to its conference opponents. Opponents have a 49.1% effective field goal rate, ninth in the conference. They rank eighth in forcing turnovers, first in rebounding, eighth in opponent’s two point percentage, eighth in opponent’s three point percentage, twelfth in blocks, and fifth in steals.

 

 

Bruins Take on the Jets in Sunday NHL Action

Boston Bruins (-140) at the Winnipeg Jets (+129) Total: 5.5

The Boston Bruins, currently in second place in the Northeast division with 18 points, head into the MTS Centre on Sunday to take on the 5-7-0-1 Winnipeg Jets. Boston opened up a five game road trip with a 4-2 loss to Buffalo on Friday, thanks to three third period goals by the Sabres. They have now lost two straight games after winning six of seven previously. The Bruins have scored 2.7 goals per game away from home in 2013 while giving up 2.2 goals to its opponents, enough to earn Boston a 4-1-1 record away from the The Garden. Boston is averaging 32.5 shots per game as visitors, and allowing 26.5 shots to its opponents. The Bruins have gone under in half of its games so far this year.

Winnipeg has struggled recently as well, losing for the third time in four games to Pittsburgh on Friday night. The Jets are 3-4-0 at home so far this year, scoring 2.6 goals a game while giving up 3 goals per game. They are averaging 27.6 shots on goal at home, with a 9% shot success rate. On defense, the Jets have allowed 26.4 shots on goal for a 11% shot success rate Winnipeg is 4-6-0 in its last 10 games, with a goal differential of -10 goals so far this season. Winnipeg has gone under in 6 of its 13 games in 2013. This will be the final game of a three game home stand for the Jets; next week Winnipeg will start a five game road trip with a game at Buffalo.

The Jets will be without  defensiveman Toby Enstrom today, and are unsure how long his shoulder injury it will keep him out of the lineup.

“He has a shoulder issue that will put him out for a little while,” head coach Claude Noel said after Saturday’s practice at MTS Iceplex. Enstrom is expected to have an MRI on Sunday.

Recent Trends:

  • Boston is 4-1 in their last five games.
  • Winnipeg is 3-8 in its last 11 home games.
  • The Jets are 16-45 in their last 61 games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.
  • Boston has gone over in 11 of its last 15 games against a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in Winnipeg’s last nine games against a team with a winning percentage above 60%.

Sunday Morning Hockey Betting: Pittsburgh at Buffalo

Pittsburgh Penguins (-139) at the Buffalo Sabres (128) Total: 5.5

 
The Pittsburgh Penguins, 10-5-0-0 and in second place in the Atlantic division with 20 points, travel to Buffalo to face off against the Sabres on Sunday. The Penguins have scored 3.2 goals per game away from home in 2013 while giving up 2 goals to its opponents, enough to earn Pittsburgh a 7-2-0 record away from the Consol Energy Center. Pittsburgh is averaging 29.9 shots per game as visitors, and allowing 29.4 shots to its opponents. Pittsburgh is 7-3-0 in its last ten games, thanks in large part to a strong defense that has allowed only 17 goals in the those ten games. The Penguins have gone over in 8 of its 15 games in 2013.

 
The Sabres hit a rough patch in January but have  bounced back to win three of their last five games. A big part of the turnaround is the improved defense and goaltending. After yielding at least four goals in six straight games, the Sabres have allowed just 10 in the past four contests. Buffalo is 3-3-1 at home so far this year, scoring 3 goals a game while giving up 3.1 goals per game. They are averaging 32.3 shots on goal at home, with a 9% shot success rate. On defense, the Sabres have allowed 33 shots on goal for a 10% shot success rate Buffalo is 4-5-1 in its last 10 games, with a goal differential of -7 goals so far this season. The Sabres have gone over in 60% of its games in 2013.

 
Latest Trends:
Pittsburgh is 5-1 in their last 6 road games.
The Penguins are 39-13 in their last 52 vs. a team with a losing record.
Pittsburgh is 42-19 in their last 61 overall.
Pittsburgh is 1-5 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
The Sabres are 16-7 in their last 23 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game.
The Sabres are 3-7 in their last 10 games playing on 1 days rest.
The Sabres are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Buffalo.
Pittsburgh is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Pittsburgh is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Buffalo.

 

Pick: Pittsburgh has owned Buffalo in recent years, and despite the stellar play from Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller, I expect that trend to continue. Pittsburgh 4, Buffalo 2.

Wednesday Hockey Betting News

Ottawa at Pittsburgh (total: 5.5, home line -201)

Ottawa heads into Pittsburgh to face off against the Penguins on Wednesday night. The two teams have played once already this season, with Pittsburgh pulling out a 2-1 shootout victory. Ottawa ( 7-4-1) beat Buffalo 2-0 last night, snapping a small two game winless streak. Pittsburgh (8-5-0) played back to back games against New Jersey over the weekend, losing both games 3-1. Prior to that, the Penguins had won five straight games. Pittsburgh has struggled so far at home this year, losing as heavy favorites in three of its five games in the 2012-13 season.

Trends:
Over is 4-0 in Ottawa’s last four games playing without any rest.
Under is 5-0 in Pittsburgh’s last five games against a team with a winning record.
Over is 5-0 in Pittsburgh’s last five games playing with two days rest.
Over is 5-1 in the last six games between these two teams.

 
St. Louis at Detroit (5.5,-111)

After getting off to a great start, the Blues have lost five straight games, including last night’s home loss to the Kings as -163 favorites. Things won’t get easy for them in Detroit either. Detroit is on a three game winning streak, capped off by a game winning goal with five seconds left on Sunday to beat the Kings 4-3.

Trends:
Detroit is 1-5 in its last six home games against teams with winning records.
Over is 3-0-1 in St. Louis’s last for games playing on a day’s rest.
The Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these two teams.
The home team is 7-2 in the last nine games .
St. Louis is 11-28 in its last 39 games in Detroit.

 

Dallas at Calgary (5, -126)

Dallas has won four in a row as they head to Calgary to face off against the Flames. Dallas took down Edmonton last night 4-1, its sixth straight win over the Oilers. No surprise there: the Stars are 28-5-4 in Edmonton since moving to Dallas. Calgary lost a 2-1 shootout to the Minnesota Wild on Monday. They will again be missing goalie Mikka Kiprusoff, who went down last week with a sprained MCL. He is expected to miss another two weeks. Leland Irving has started the three games since Kiprusoff’s injury, going 1-1-1.

Trends:
Dallas is 4-0 in its last four games after allowing two or few goals in its previous games.
Under is 1-0-3 in Dallas’s last four games against the Northwest Division.
Calgary is 4-0 in thier last four games after allowing two or fewer goals in their previous games.
Over is 4-0-3 in the last seven games between these two teams.
Home team is 5-2 in the last seven match-ups between these two teams.

Wager Web Sportsbook Downgraded to F

If you are a bettor who wants to get paid when you win, you should avoid betting at Wager Web sportsbook. Wager Web might prove to be very reluctant to pay out its players.

Wager Web has owed a former player almost $11,500 since 2009. Claiming the bettor was playing correlated parlays against its rules, WagerWeb closed the player’s account and has refused to pay out any of the balance.

Correlated parlays are any bets where winning one side makes winning the second leg more likely. For instance, betting Alabama -48 and Over 53 would be correlated, since it is likely the game will go over 53 points scored if Alabama covers the point spread. A first half parlay with Kansas St. -6 and over 28.5 isn’t highly correlated, however, so most sportsbooks allow wagers like these.

Typically, a book will divide the point spread by the game total; if the number is greater than 30%, the two bets are correllated enough to make the bets a net loser for the sportsbook. The sportsbook will have the software reject such wagers. WagerWeb, using ASI software, routinely rejected bets with this high correlation.

Other same game parlays were accepted by Wager Web, however. The player in question made many of these wagers, losing nearly $10,000 in the process. WagerWeb would routinely offer the player reload bonus, liking his action.

However, the player got hot and won $4,302 over a two-month period ending on October 24th, 2009. After the player requested a payout, WagerWeb conducted a five week investigation that culminated with Wagerweb taking $9,578.60 from the players account, claiming illegal bets. They have since refused by pay the additional $1,700 in the player’s account unless the player agrees to forfeit the nearly $9,600 in dispute.

The player has since taken the case to several outside parties, hoping mediation will resolve the issue. Both parties, SportsbookReview.com and OSGA.com, have ruled in favor of the player. WagerWeb still resists, using a variety of excuses such as software mistakes, new ownership, and fraud. No evidence has been shown to back up these excuses.

Based on this and other instances of questionable behavior by WagerWeb, Rouletters downgrades WagerWeb to an F grading and advise all to avoid this sportsbook.

 

Have a tip? Email angela@rouletters.com

Pucks Betting: Tuesday Hockey News

Ten games are on tap tonight in the NHL, including the 10-0-2 Chicago Black Hawks returning home to face 8-2-1 Anaheim Ducks. Chicago has played just two home games so far this year, squeaking out one goal wins in both games. They are just five games away from setting the NHL record for most games without a regulation loss to start a season.

The Ducks currently hold the current streak. Anaheim went 12-0-4 to start the 2006-2007 season that culminated in a NHL title. The Ducks are 4-1-1 on the road, including a 6-5 shootout victory on Saturday over the St. Louis Blues. This will be Anaheim’s fourth straight game away from its home ice.

The Under has hit in seven of the last eight meetings between these two teams. Chicago has also gone Under in its last five home games. Chicago is a -160 favorite over Anaheim, with the total set at 5.5

Other games tonight:

Carolina at New Jersey (-165, total=5 -125): New Jersey has outscored its opponents 16-5 in its last five games, winning all five.

Buffalo vs Ottawa (-140, 5.5 -120): Buffalo has lost seven of its last 10 games. Four of the last five Ottawa home games have gone Under the total.

Montreal vs Tampa Bay (-130, 5.5 -115): Montreal has lost its last three games while Tampa is on a four game losing streak, scoring just six goals in those four games.

New York Rangers vs Boston (-140, 5 -110): Two hot teams facing off: Rangers have won five of its last seven games with Boston winning six of seven.

Washington vs Florida (-125, 5.5 -120): Senators have lost four of their last five games, but are on a four game winning streak against Florida.

San Jose vs Nashville (-115, 5 -120): San Jose is on a five game losing streak, being outscored 16-7 in those games. Nashville has scored just one goal in its last two games.

Philadelphia vs Winnipeg (-135, 5.5 -110): Winnipeg has owned the Flyers in recent years, going 10-2 in its last twelve games against Philadelphia.

Dallas vs Edmonton (-125, 5 -120): Dallas has allowed just five goals in the last three games, winning all three. Edmonton has lost five of its last six games.

Minnesota vs Vancouver (-185, 5 -110): Vancouver is on a five game winning streak.