Betting the NFL Draft

From betting on who the next Pope will be to wagering on Little League, there seems to be a betting opportunity for just about everything under the sun. So it should be no surprise that several sportsbooks are offering bets on tonight’s NFL draft.

Offensive players taken in first round, over/under 13.5:  Slight lean towards the over (all depends on New England taking a wide receiver at 29). That’s where the juice is leaning, however. I’d have to bet $120 to win $100 on the over.

Defensive players taken in first round, over/under 19.5:  If I’m taking the over 13.5 in offensive players taken, don’t I have to take under 19.5 defensive?  Money has been bet on the under here: it is -230 at both 5Dimes and Heritage. Why not bet over 13.5 offensive players at -120 and over 19.5 defensive players at +170?  If the offense goes over, I’ll break even. If defense goes over, I win $50.

Sadly, extremely low limits don’t make this too profitable. 5Dimes is only taking $50 per bet, while Heritage is taking $100 maximum. But $50 is $50, right?

Cornerbacks taken in first round, over/under 4.5: Dee Milliner, Desmond Trufant, Xavier Rhodes, DJ Hayden..then who?  No one seems to know who else will go so all the action is on the under. A bettor would have to wager $410 to win $100 on the under. Jamar Taylor could burn those under bettors though.

Safeties taken in first round, over/under 2.5:  Kenny Vaccaro, Matt Elam, Eric Reid, and, Johnathan Cyprien all have been mocked to go in the first round. Shamarko Thomas and JJ Wilcox are also talents. Very deep position in this draft.

Offensive linemen taken in first round, over/under 6.5: Joeckel, Fisher and Lane Johnson are possible top five picks.  Johnathan Cooper might land in Buffalo at #8. DJ Fluker could go #12 to Miami or #15 to the Saints. Chance Warmack could also go to the Dolphins or the Jets at #13. After that, it’s a crap shoot. Atlanta might make or break this bet: Kyle Long and Justin Pugh could be the 7th lineman taken at #30 for the Falcons.

 SEC Players taken, over/under 11.5: Let’s count them up: Joeckel, Milliner, Floyd, Mingo, Fluker, Warmack, Sheldon Richardson, Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Cordarrelle Patterson are pretty much set for the first round. That’s 10. Plus there are talents like  Eddie Lacy and Justin Hunter who likely will go. What about Matt Elam? Eric Reid? Kevin Minter? John Jenkins?  Over is the play, but that’s where the money is going. Over 11.5 is -280 so I’ll have to pass.