Betting Baseball: Rays Look to Bury Baltimore in Wild Card Race

Tampa Bay Rays (-104) at Baltimore Orioles (-104, 8.5 O/U )

Tampa Bay, struggling out of the gates in early August, will try to make it five in a row at Camden Yards when division rivals continue their three game series. The Rays overcame a shaky start from David Price last night to win 4-3 and have climbed within one game of the first place Boston Red Sox. Baltimore, on the other hand, dropped to 4.5 games back in the wild card race. Right-hander Alex Cobb takes the mound tonight for the Rays. He is 7-2 on the year with a 2.94 ERA. Cobb returned from the disabled list without much fanfare Thursday, his first start since being hit on the head with a line drive on June 15. He limited Seattle to one run and three hits over five innings in a 7-1 win. The Rays, 10-4 in his starts, have gone over 54% of the time in those starts.

The Orioles will send right-hander Miguel Gonzalez out as their starter; he has a 8-5 record so far in 2013. Gonzalez pitched seven solid innings in Arizona in his previous start, allowing just two earned runs, but got his second straight no-decision thanks to a blown save by Baltimore closer Jim Johnson. “I thought Miguel pitched outstanding,” Baltimore manager Buck Showalter said. “He pitched well enough to win.” He is 5-1 with a 4.18 ERA in nine home starts. The Orioles have gone over the total in 47% of his starts. Temperatures are expected to be around 85°F at game time tonight. Humidity will be at 51%, with the wind blowing out at 4 mph.

Tampa Bay Rays versus Gonzalez: 29 years old right-hander, 6’1” 170 pounds. Throws: fastball, splitter, slider, curve

Fly Ball Pitcher

Runs per game (league ranking), 16 (4.19 per game) : Home Runs, 10 (33 HRs)

    Bat Ave, 19 (.244) : OB%, 20 (.311) : Slugging, 13 (.404)

      Walks, 18 (3.1 per game) : Strikeouts, 21 (7.5) : Stolen Bases, 9 (16 SBs)

      Last seven games, 8 (.762 OPS) : Last 14 games, 15 (.718 OPS) : Last 28 games, 17 (.705 OPS)

        Versus Righties, 10 (.735 OPS) : Versus lefties, 2 (.764 OPS)

          Home, 8 (.754 OPS) : Away, 7 (.734 OPS)

            1st Inning Production, 12 (.761 OPS)

              Facing a Power Pitcher, 17 (.664 OPS) : Facing a Finesse Pitcher, 7 (.778 OPS)

                Facing a fly ball pitcher, 4 (.763 OPS) : Facing a ground ball pitcher, 9 (.733 OPS)

                  Run Production at Night, 3 (.774 OPS) : Run Production During Day, 23 (.685 OPS)

                    First five innings, 7 (.750 OPS) : 6th to 9th Innings, 4 (.729 OPS)

                      Baltimore Orioles versus Cobb: 25 years old right-hander, 6’2” 195 pounds. Throws: fastball, changeup, curve

                      Ground Ball Pitcher

                      Runs per game (league ranking), 5 (5.03 per game) : Home Runs, 7 (34 HRs)

                        Bat Ave, 6 (.263) : OB%, 11 (.324) : Slugging, 6 (.426)

                          Walks, 9 (3.1 per game) : Strikeouts, 20 (7) : Stolen Bases, 9 (16 SBs)

                          Last seven games, 16 (.722 OPS) : Last 14 games, 8 (.762 OPS) : Last 28 games, 15 (.707 OPS)

                            Versus Righties, 3 (.778 OPS) : Versus lefties, 17 (.706 OPS)

                              Home, 9 (.748 OPS) : Away, 1 (.762 OPS)

                                1st Inning Production, 3 (.843 OPS)

                                  Facing a Power Pitcher, 5 (.727 OPS) : Facing a Finesse Pitcher, 5 (.789 OPS)

                                    Facing a fly ball pitcher, 4 (.763 OPS) : Facing a ground ball pitcher, 9 (.733 OPS)

                                      Run Production at Night, 10 (.730 OPS) : Run Production During Day, 1 (.800 OPS)

                                        First five innings, 3 (.785 OPS) : 6th to 9th Innings, 9 (.706 OPS)